An Explanation of Texas Holdem Odds
Probability is a huge factor in texas hold em. Players use odds to determine their actions. The chances of finishing a flush or a straight, the probability of getting an overcard, the percentage of times you're going to flop a set to match your pocket pair are all important factors in poker. Knowledge of these statistics is key to winning. In online games especially with very few (if any) tells, statistical knowledge becomes the main factor when choosing whether to bet, call, or fold.Here are some terms that you'll hear on this site and whenever you're talking about poker odds...
| Outs | The number of cards left in the deck that will improve your hand. "I had four hearts on the turn, so I had only 9 outs left to finish that flush." |
| Pot Odds | The odds you get when analyzing the current size of the pot vs. your next call. "There's $200 already in the pot, and only another $10 bet coming at me, so my pot odds are good if I hit that flush." |
| Bet Odds | The odds you get as a result of evaluating the number of callers to a raise. "With a 1 in 5 chance of hitting it, and knowing all six of these guys are gonna call my bet, my bet odds are good too." |
| Implied Odds | The odds you are getting after the assumed result of betting for the remainder of the hand. "Since I think these guys are going to call on the turn and river, my implied odds are excellent." |
Pot odds are as easy as computing outs. You compare your outs or your chance of winning to the size of the pot. If your chance of winning is significantly better than the ratio of the pot size to a bet, then you have good pot odds. If it's lower, then you have bad pot odds. For example, say you are in a $5/$10 texas hold'em game with Jack-Ten facing one opponent on the turn. You have an outside straight draw with a board of 2-5-9-Q, and only the river card left to make it. Any 8 or any King will finish this straight for you, so you have 8 outs (four 8's and 4 K's left in the deck) and 46 unseen cards left. 8/46 is almost the same as a 1 in 6 chance of making it. Your sole opponent bets $10. You if you take a $10 bet you could win $200. $200/$10 is 20, so you stand to make 20x more if you call. 1/6 higher than 1/20, so pot odds say that calling wouldn't be a bad idea.
We should probably clarify one thing. A lot of players want to somehow factor in money they wagered on previous rounds. With the last example, you probably had already invested a significant portion of that $200 pot. Let's say $50. Does that mean you should play or fold because of that money you already have in there? $50/$200? That's a big no. That's not your money anymore! It's in a pool of money to be given to the winner. You have no "stake" in that pot. The only stake you might have is totally mental and has no bearing on hard statistics.
The next step is to use bet odds and implied odds. That's tougher, because it involves predicting reactions of other players. With bet odds, you try to factor in how many people are going to call a raise. With implied odds, you're thinking about reactions for the rest of the game. One last example on implied odds...
Say it's another $5/$10 texas holdem game and you have a four flush on the flop. Your neighbor bets, and everyone else folds. The pot is $50 at this point. First you figure out your chance of hitting your flush on the turn, and it comes out to about 19.1% (about 1 in 5). You have to call this $5 bet vs a $50 pot, so that's a 10x payout. 1/5 is higher than 1/10, so bet odds are okay, but you must consider that this guy's going to bet into you on the turn and river also. That's the $5 plus two more $10 bets. So now your facing $25 more till the end of the hand. So you have to consider your chances of hitting that flush on the turn or river, which makes it about 35% (better than 1 in 3 now), but you have to invest $25 for a finishing pot of $100. $100/$25 is 1 in 4. That's pretty close. But there's more!... if you don't make it on the turn, it'll change your outs and odds! You'll have a 19.6% chance of hitting the flush (little worse than 1 in 5), but a $20 investment for a finishing pot of $100! $100/$20 is 1 in 5. So the chances would take a nasty turn if you didn't hit it! What's makes it more complicated is that if you did hit it on the turn, you could raise him back, and get an extra $20 or maybe even $40 in the pot.
I'll let it go at that, as once you've mastered simple outs and pot odds, bet and implied odds are just a longer extension of these equations. If you sit and think about these things while you play, it'll come to you eventually without any tutoring. Good luck!
